إستخدام نماذج السلاسل الزمنية للتنبؤ بأعداد تلاميذ الصف الأول بمرحلة الأساس في ولاية الخرطوم خلال الفتره 2021-1990)م)

Abstract

Abstract:

The study tackled prediction which is considered to be the most important tool of decision making .the study predict the numbers of first year pupils of basic level to help the authority in planning well for their education according to Sudanese low.  The study aims to build statistical model that enable to predict the numbers of pupils and the ability of applying the model of time series in the prediction of pupils numbers in class first at basic level. The researches has used the secondary date which has been collected from ministry of education. Khartoum state. The date has been analyzed by the use of time series.(Archive). The researcher has found out many results same of them are: Numbers of first class pupils of basic level (1990-2021) are not stable and the valve of prediction they are increasing through time. The suitable model for predication of pupils number at Khartoum state is (1.1.0) ARIMA. The researcher also recommends different things. The authority should adopt plans and programmers that help including all children in the education age at school. This is by conducting more studies using time series and other statistical systems from (2021-2031).